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09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals both finished atop their respective divisions in 2009, both teams enter Sunday's season-opening showdown at Gillette Stadium with their share of skeptics and an unfulfilled feeling even after last year's accomplishments.
The 2009 Patriots recorded a seventh consecutive season of double-digit victories and captured a sixth AFC East title over that impressive era, but the team's quest to regain supremacy of a conference it had ruled for much of the past decade came to a swift and bitter end with a revealing 33-14 home loss to Baltimore in last January's Wild Card Playoffs. That one-sided defeat, in which New England was bullied for 234 rushing yards by the more-physical Ravens, has triggered a growing sense that the once-mighty Pats are now a decaying dynasty about to enter an inevitable phase of transition.
While the Patriots may be on the decline, it's still hard to overlook a team that has a former NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion at quarterback (Tom Brady), plus a pair of prolific wide receivers (Randy Moss, Wes Welker) and one of the league's all-time mastermind game-planners in head coach Bill Belichick at its disposal. With that accomplished core still on hand, New England remains a dangerous foe, although how the club is able to withstand the absences of key contributors such as Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins (holdout) and defensive end Ty Warren (season-ending hip injury) may ultimately determine whether the Pats can continue their amazing run of success.
The Bengals produced one of the league's biggest turnarounds a year ago, reversing a dreadful 4-11-1 campaign in 2008 into a 10-win regular season that saved the bacon of head coach Marvin Lewis. But like their Week 1 opponents, Cincinnati's deficiencies were exposed in an opening-round playoff loss in its own building.
The 24-14 setback to the up-and-coming New York Jets divulged the Bengals' most glaring weakness, a lack of viable offensive playmakers to complement standout running back Cedric Benson and flashy wide receiver Chad Ochocinco. Cincinnati went to interesting lengths in an effort to resolve the issue, bringing in controversial wideout Terrell Owens just prior to training camp.
Putting Owens, a five-time All-Pro who'll turn 37 in December, opposite the equally-flamboyant Ochocinco gives the Bengals the unquestioned most colorful pass-catching duo in the league. The team also hopes the addition pays off on the field, as Cincinnati will be attempting to end a dubious trend of failure in seasons that have followed playoff runs.
The Bengals haven't reached the postseason in back-to-back years since 1981-82, and in their four most recent playoff trips have failed to achieve a winning record the subsequent season.
SERIES HISTORY
New England holds a 13-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, winning three in a row in the series since the Bengals scored their last victory in the series, a 23-17 win at home in 2001. The Patriots were 34-13 winners when they visited Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4 of the 2007 season, and earned a 35-28 decision when the teams last met in New England, in 2004. The Bengals are 0-4 in New England since last winning there in 1986.
Belichick is 12-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 4-1 while with the Patriots. Lewis is 0-3 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.
WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
Most of the fans and media will likely be fixated on how the combination of Ochocinco (72 receptions, 1047 yards, 9 TD) and Owens (55 receptions, 5 TD) performs, but Cincinnati's success in 2009 was often predicated on how effective Benson (1251 rushing yards, 6 TD, 17 receptions) was between the tackles. The Bengals were 6-0 when the powerful back cranked out over 100 yards during the regular season, and he could find more lanes to run through this year with opponents having to show more respect to the pass. Owens may be getting up in years and has the reputation of being a drain in the locker room, but he's still a legitimate big-play threat and a sizeable upgrade over last year's starter, Laveraneus Coles. The Bengals added another weapon for steady quarterback Carson Palmer (3094 passing yards, 21 TD, 13 INT) via the first-round selection of tight end Jermaine Gresham in April's draft, with the Oklahoma product providing a receiving presence the team hasn't seen at the position in ages. Wide receiver and fellow rookie Jordan Shipley (3rd Round, Texas) should see immediate time working out of the slot, while promising sophomore Bernard Scott (321 rushing yards, 5 receptions) may take over regular third-down back Brian Leonard's (84 rushing yards, 30 receptions) duties with the latter presently sidelined with a sprained left foot.
Benson could be in for a banner day if the New England defense performs like it did in January's playoff loss to the Ravens, and the year-ending loss of the sturdy Warren is certainly a tough blow. The Patriots still have a top- tier stopper in the middle in two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork (43 tackles), while the addition of physical rookie inside linebacker Brandon Spikes (2nd Round, Florida) alongside 2008 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo (103 tackles, 1.5 sacks) also figures to aid against the run. There are questions to answer in the secondary and in regards to the pass rush, however. With top cover man Leigh Bodden (shoulder) also done for the season, New England will field a green starting cornerback tandem of 2010 first-round pick Devin McCourty and second-year pro Darius Butler (35 tackles, 3 INT) on Sunday, while outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (55 tackles, 10 sacks) is the only proven pressure-producer up front.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
New England ranked third in the NFL in passing offense (283.8 ypg) last season and got a nice bounce-back year out of Brady (4398 passing yards, 28 TD, 13 INT), who made a successful return from a serious knee injury suffered in the 2008 opener to start every game and register the second-highest yardage total of his brilliant career. The star signal-caller gave his team a scary moment after being involved in an auto accident on Thursday, but reportedly walked away unscathed and will be back in his customary role of slinging passes to Moss (83 receptions, 1264 yards, 13 TD) and favorite target Welker (1348 yards, 4 TD), whose 123 catches last year were the second-most in league history. The prolific slot receiver is a quick healer as well, having rehabbed an ACL tear suffered in the 2009 regular-season finale in time to participate in Sunday's game. His snaps may be limited, though, if capable understudy Julian Edelman (37 receptions, 1 TD) is able to play through an ankle injury that has the second-year surprise listed as questionable for the opener. Mankins, one of the game's best guards, definitely won't be available due to his nasty contract dispute with the organization, and neither will intended replacement Nick Kaczur after the converted tackle underwent back surgery in August. Their absences don't bode well for a running game that was non-existent for parts of last year and is headed up by two aging backs in 34-year-old Fred Taylor (269 rushing yards, 4 TD) and third-down specialist Kevin Faulk (335 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 3 total TD).
Cincinnati's 2009 resurgence also wouldn't have been possible without the stout play of a defense that surrendered the fourth-fewest yards in the league (301.4 ypg) despite being without its best pass rusher, Antwan Odom (19 tackles), for most of the year because of a torn Achilles he incurred in Week 6 of last season. The seventh-year end is back to lend support to a strong secondary headlined by the outstanding cornerback combo of Leon Hall (71 tackles, 6 INT, 24 PD) and Johnathan Joseph (69 tackles, 6 INT, 20 PD) and was further bolstered by the high-risk offseason pickup of Adam "Pacman" Jones. The troubled ex-Titan and Cowboy was out of football a year ago, but showed little rust while playing well in the preseason. Veteran Dhani Jones (113 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Cincy's top tackler in each of the past two seasons, is the leader and on-field coordinator of a quality linebacking group that also contains rugged run-stopper Rey Maualuga (63 tackles, 1 sack) on the strong side.
FANTASY FOCUS
There are plenty of appealing fantasy choices in this intriguing Week 1 clash. The Patriots' terrific trio of Brady, Moss and Welker are always must-starts whenever they're in the lineup, although owners of the latter should prepare for a potential drop-off while he works his way back from his injury. New England's situation at running back is far more fluid, with Taylor, Faulk and the fumble-prone Laurence Maroney (757 rushing yards, 9 TD, 14 receptions) all possibilities to be the lead guy, so it's best to sit back and let the scenario play itself out early on. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski annually ranks among the top point-getters at his position and averaged two field goals per game at home last year.
Benson stands as Cincinnati's most reliable option and should be used in all formats, while both Ochocinco and Owens clearly merit consideration in what shapes up as a juicy matchup against New England's young corners. Upgrade Palmer as well for this week, but Gresham has more value right now as a dynasty-league stash than as a consistent weekly contributor. The Bengals defense is worth drafting, but there may be better alternatives out there with a high-powered offense on tap for this week.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
It's been quite some time since the Patriots entered a season with so much uncertainty, and there's little question the Bengals have the personnel capable of exposing their opponents' perceived weak spots. Ochocinco and Owens hold a distinct experience edge on New England's raw but talented corners, and the dynamic duo should have their way unless the Pats can mount a consistent pass rush -- a big 'if' as well. That should help open up space for Benson, and the Bengals have shown to be a tough out whenever their workhorse back has a big day. While the Patriots are certainly able to prevail in a shootout, that still may be a tall order against a tough Cincinnati defense that will do just enough to prevent Brady and company from going ballistic.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bengals 24, Patriots 20
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds
Will he or won't he? Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.
Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.
"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."
Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.
Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.
But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.
Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback. It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.
Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Baltimore Ravens 15-1
Buffalo Bills 50-1
Carolina Panthers 18-1
Chicago Bears 10-1
Cincinnati Bengals 15-1
Cleveland Browns 100-1
Dallas Cowboys 15-1
Denver Broncos 15-1
Detroit Lions 100-1
Green Bay Packers 50-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Indianapolis Colts 6-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1
Kansas City Chiefs 30-1
Miami Dolphins 40-1
Minnesota Vikings 75-1
New England Patriots 10-1
New Orleans Saints 18-1
New York Giants 20-1
New York Jets 30-1
Oakland Raiders 100-1
Philadelphia Eagles 18-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1
Saint Louis Rams 60-1
San Diego Chargers 6-1
San Francisco 49ers 75-1
Seattle Seahawks 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1
Tennessee Titans 40-1
Washington Redskins 50-1
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