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02/25/2007 - Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dustin Brown scored in the sixth round of the shootout to lift Los Angeles past Colorado, 6-5, at Staples Center.
Rob Blake had a goal late in the third to send the game into overtime and added an assist for the Kings, who have won two of their last three games.
Sean Burke finished with 25 saves in the victory.
Andrew Brunette finished with three assists while Paul Stastny added two helpers for the Avalanche, who have lost two straight.
Peter Budaj allowed five goals on 39 shots in the loss for Colorado.
With the shootout tied at 2-2, Brunette was stoned by Burke, who stacked his pads against the left post. Brown then quickly skated in on goal and fired a snap shot through the pads of Budaj to five the Kings the extra point.
With the score tied at 2-2 after two periods, the Avs struck for two goals in the first five minutes of the final frame.
Just 1:01 into the third, John-Michael Liles found a loose puck outside the crease after a scrum and banged the disc home for a power-play goal to put Colorado up 3-2.
Marek Svatos then gave the Avalanche a two-goal advantage tallying his 14th goal of the season at 4:38 of the third. From in front, Svatos tipped a shot from Ben Guite past Burke on his glove side.
With 10:57 left in the final frame, Los Angeles pulled to within a goal after Alexander Frolov backhanded a shot from the slot past Budaj.
Colorado regained its two-goal lead with 7:14 remaining after Milan Hejduk fired a quick snap shot past Burke for a power-play goal to make it 5-3.
With 4:46 to play, Lubomir Visnovsky blasted a slap shot from the top of the point past a screened Budaj to pull LA within a goal.
Blake then sent the game into overtime scoring with just 3.9 ticks on the clock. The veteran defenseman had two whacks at a loose puck in front and finally pushed the disc over the goal line for his 11th goal of the year.
The Kings struck first and took a 1-0 lead after Anze Kopitar notched his 18th goal of the season 8:56 into the first. On the power play, Blake chipped the puck into the neutral zone from his own end and Kopitar scooped the disc up and skated into the Colorado zone. The rookie then deked around two defenders and, before being knocked down from behind, slid the puck just inside the left post and over the goal line.
With 5:37 left in the opening period, Los Angeles went up 2-0 after Brian Willsie scored.
Colorado used a two-man advantage to get on the board and make it a 2-1 game at 4:42 of the second. From the left boards, Joe Sakic centered a pass to Brett Clark in the slot and he one-timed the feed through the pads of Burke.
Ian Laperriere scored his fifth goal of the season at 11:23 of the second to even the score at 2-2.
Game Notes
Michael Cammalleri had three assists for the Kings...Los Angeles went 2-for-7 on the power play while the Avalanche went 3-for-6 with the man advantage...LA outshot the Avs, 39-30.
<< Iginla leads Flames past Sharks
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jarome Iginla scored two goals and added two
assists to help the Calgary Flames to a 7-4 victory over the San Jose Sharks
at Pengrowth Saddledome.
Matthew Lombardi had a goal and an assist and Alex Tangu
<< No. 23 Ducks drop Huskies
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Brooks scored 30 points on 10-of-14
shooting and dished out six assists, as No. 23 Oregon downed Washington,
93-85, at McArthur Court.
Tajuan Porter added 19 points for the Ducks (22-7, 10-7 P
<< No. 11 Nevada holds off Boise State
Boise, ID (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Fazekas posted 28 points and eight rebounds,
as the 11th-ranked Nevada Wolf Pack clinched at least a share of their fourth
consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular season title with a 95-81 win
over th
<< Oklahoma State edges Nebraska
Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrea Riley scored 17 points to lead
Oklahoma State past No. 25 Nebraska, 63-60, at Gallagher-Iba Arena.
Rashidat Sadiq added 16 points for the Cowgirls (19-9, 7-8 Big 12), who gave
Kurt Budke his
Blue Devils in the Big Apple to take on Red Storm >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Duke Blue Devils are
playing with a tremendous amount of confidence, and they will take
on the St. John's Red Storm this afternoon in non-conference action
from N
Striving for perfection in Conference USA >>
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Memphis Tigers continue
to plow through their Conference USA schedule, and they will attempt to
avoid an upset this afternoon as the Houston Cougars come to town.
Houston ro
Tar Heels set to take walk through College Park >>
College Park, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels
appear to be the class of the ACC, and they will take on the Maryland
Terrapins this evening in College Park.
North Carolina has won two straight ga
Nation's top two teams collide in Columbus >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The highly-anticipated Big Ten battle
between the top-ranked Wisconsin Badgers and the second-ranked Ohio
State Buckeyes will finally take place in Columbus this afternoon.
The luster
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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