Big East action pits Mountaineers at Friars

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/20/2007 - Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In need of a quality win, the Providence Friars host the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers in a key Big East showdown from the Dunkin' Donuts Center tonight.

The Friars have had a solid campaign thus far, but they still have a lot of work ahead of them to earn an invite to the NCAA Tournament. Providence, which hasn't defeated a ranked opponent since beating Marquette (74-59) in its Big East opener, enters the contest fresh off a 71-66 victory over St. John's on Saturday. The win put an end to a brief two-game slide and improved the team to 16-9 overall and an even 6-6 in league play. It was also the Friars' 15th home win in 17 games at the Dunkin' Donuts Center this season.

As for WVU, barring a major collapse, it seems pretty certain it will make an appearance in the NCAA Tournament behind a 20-6 record. On Saturday, the Mountaineers defeated Seton Hall, 81-71, to improved to 8-5 in league play. WVU, which has now posted three straight 20-win seasons for the first time since 1985-87, takes to the road, where it has gone just 3-4 thus far.

In terms of the all-time series, Providence owns an 10-9 edge over WVU, although the Mountaineers have won the last four meetings.

The Mountaineers possess one of the best turnover margins in the Big East, as they are forcing their opponents into 17.2 turnovers per game, while committing just 11.4 tpg themselves. Another area WVU has excelled in has been defense, as it is allowing just 59.5 ppg. Offensively, Frank Young leads the way with 14.2 ppg and he is shooting 40.6 percent from three-point range. Joe Alexander has provided a nice complement to him and he is turning in 12.2 ppg and a team-high 4.6 rpg. Darris Nichols adds 10.2 pg and 4.3 apg, while Da'Sean Butler chips in with 10.1 ppg off the bench. In the team's last game, Young tallied 18 points and collected five caroms in leading WVU to a 10-point win over Seton Hall. Nichols posted 17 points and five assists for the Mountaineers, who shot 57.4 percent from the field, including a 9-of-23 effort from long range.

The Friars have a definite advantage on the boards in this game, and they are outrebounding their opponents to by a solid 7.6 rpg on the season. The team has also fared well at the offensive end of the court, where it is averaging a hardy 77.1 ppg on an efficient 49.3 percent shooting from the floor. Herbert Hill currently leads the team in scoring with 17.0 ppg and he is also ripping down 8.3 rpg. Sharaud Curry is second on the roster in scoring (16.9 ppg) as well as assists (4.9 apg), while Weyinmi Efejuku adds 13.9 ppg and 4.4 rpg. Geoff McDermott is another player worth mentioning, as he leads the team in rebounding (9.4 rpg), assists (5.5 apg) and steals (51) to go along with his 10.9 ppg average. In the squad's previous outing, Efejuku poured in 22 points and recorded three steals, as the Friars earned a five-point win over St. John's. Curry netted 18 points, while Hill notched a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds. Providence converted 18-of-20 free-throw attempts in the game and dominated the boards 39-24.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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